Bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing the final stretch of its bull cycle, but on-chain data suggests the rally isn’t over yet.
In its latest report, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant says the market is in a late-stage accumulation phase, where institutional investors remain the key force sustaining demand even as short-term momentum fades.
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According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is shifting from a period of distribution by early profit-takers to accumulation by stronger hands, led mainly by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries, and large private holders.
The firm points to the behavior of what it calls the “Dolphin cohort”, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, as a decisive indicator of where the market heads next.
“Dolphin holdings (100–1K BTC) are still growing above their 1-year MA — unlike the 2021 peak. It suggests ETF and treasury demand remains strong,” CryptoQuant says.
The data backs it up. The Dolphin group now controls 26% of Bitcoin’s total supply, or roughly 5.16 million BTC, the largest concentration ever recorded.
This cohort has added 681,000 BTC in 2025, while nearly all other investor groups have reduced their holdings, making it a clear signal that institutional players are driving this cycle.
Institutional Demand Faces a Critical Test
At the same time, exchange reserves have dropped to multi-year lows, showing that more Bitcoin is moving into long-term storage. That shrinking supply hints at a potential supply squeeze, even as near-term market strength cools.
CryptoQuant notes that the annual growth rate of Dolphin holdings remains positive at 907,000 BTC, well above the 365-day average of 730,000 BTC.
Still, that growth is slowing, which suggests that the bull run is maturing. In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance near $115,000 and support around $100,000. A break below $100,000 could spark a deeper correction, potentially reaching $75,000.
The report frames the coming weeks as a make-or-break moment for the market. If the Dolphins step up their accumulation, Bitcoin could retest and surpass $126,000. But if buying momentum continues to stall, a broader correction could follow.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin’s long-term demand remains intact, but the window for strategic accumulation is closing. Institutional conviction still anchors the cycle. Yet the next leg up may depend on whether those same buyers double down before the market peaks.
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People Also Ask:
Bitcoin late-stage accumulation refers to the phase near the end of a bull cycle where strong hands, primarily institutional investors, steadily buy Bitcoin while weaker holders sell or reduce exposure.
Indicators include growing holdings by large wallets (like the “Dolphin cohort”), declining exchange reserves, reduced selling from long-term holders, and consistent annual accumulation rates above historical averages.
Dolphins are wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC, typically representing ETFs, corporate treasuries, and high-net-worth investors. Their buying or selling behavior strongly influences Bitcoin’s price trends.
Late-stage accumulation signals that institutional demand is still driving the market. Recognizing it helps investors understand potential upside and risks before a cycle peak or correction.
Although long-term demand remains strong, short-term momentum may weaken. A slowdown in institutional buying could trigger corrections, sometimes sharp, toward key support levels.
