Bitcoin Trader Maps Out Bullish Q1 – While Still Shorting

A prominent Bitcoin price-action trader is openly short while insisting he remains “by no means bearish” on BTC – and he’s getting push back for it. In his latest video, the analyst explains why he sees a high‑probability bullish move in Q1, yet is still tactically trading against price in the current range.

The apparent contradiction, he argues, comes down to time-frames and confirmation. On the daily chart, he still entertains a textbook bearish Elliott Wave count (a completed 1–2–3–4 with a potential fifth leg lower), but calls it “less likely” than an upside resolution.

The key invalidation level for that bearish scenario, in his view, sits around $94.7k, the 0.31 retracement drawn from all‑time highs to the recent lows. A clean break above it would, for him, effectively kill the idea that a fourth wave top is already in.

Trading the Range: Short-Term Short, Long-Term Bull

Despite his macro bias, the trader has been actively shorting in the $90k–91k resistance region, explaining that algorithm-driven sellers repeatedly defended the level, visible via his favored tool: shift pitchforks.

He says he has now exited “most” of that short, keeping only a small position, after price rejected again from resistance and bounced from a pitchfork support around $86.9k. That level is now his near-term line in the sand.

The more Bitcoin taps the current supply zone, he says, the weaker it becomes: “We tested it one, two, three times. On the fourth touch, I expect it to give.” A decisive four‑hour or, ideally, daily close above roughly $90.6k–90.7k would flip him fully bullish on the short time-frame and open the way to target the macro 0.31 at $94.7k.

Above that, he sees “not much resistance” and describes a potential “free pump” toward the $100k–104k region.

Stock Market at Highs, Bitcoin Lagging Behind

One concern runs through the analysis: Bitcoin is under performing equities. The trader points out that the stock market has posted four consecutive green days, sits near record highs, and appears on track for his macro pitchfork target around 7.4k–7.5k (on his chosen index scale).

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has “kind of been dead” by comparison, with only a modest bounce. Any equity pullback from here, he warns, could pressure BTC further. If support at $86.9k fails, he’s watching a lower “original” pitchfork median line near $84.8k as a possible downside liquidity grab and long entry.

On-chain and derivatives data in his rundown are neutral. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 29 (fear), and open interest is described as “chopping sideways” – neither strongly bullish nor bearish. Liquidity heat maps show clustered stops and liquidations just above $90k and around $84k, reinforcing the idea that a sharp move in either direction could be mechanically driven.

Why This Setup Matters

For investors, the message is less about a guaranteed breakout and more about levels that define risk. The trader’s framework pivots on three prices:

• $86.9k – short-term support that should hold for the bullish Q1 thesis to stay intact
• $90.6k–90.7k – resistance that, once closed above on a daily basis, would mark a clear regime shift
• $94.7k – price range accountable for macro invalidation of the bearish Elliott Wave count

Until one of these lines gives way, he expects more “chop” and a low‑conviction environment. But once the breakout comes, he wants to be positioned, not predicting: “Nobody really knows when we’re going to break up. The important thing is to be on the right side when it happens.”

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