Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a notable shift in market dynamics this week as large holders moved from accumulation to distribution. Whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC reduced their positions, with their 1-year net holdings swinging from more than 200,000 BTC increase in 2024 to roughly -188,000 BTC. Smaller investors continued to buy, but at a markedly slower pace.
Shifts in On-Chain Demand
On-chain data from CryptoQuant show that overall spot demand is contracting, despite ongoing purchases via ETFs and institutional strategies.
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Over the past 30 days, apparent demand fell by 63,000 BTC, reflecting a market where selling from large holders is outweighing inflows from mid-tier and retail investors.
Mid-tier holders or those holding 100–1,000 BTC, remain net buyers but at a decelerating rate. Dolphin-class holders, those with under 100 BTC, added 429,000 BTC over the past year, down from roughly 1 million BTC in October 2025.
According to the CryptoQuant report, U.S.-based demand has weakened as well, with Coinbase Premium persistently negative, even as BTC trades between $65,000 and $70,000.
Maximum Pain Metrics Suggest Bottoming Conditions
In the meantime, Bitcoin’s supply in profit has dropped to 56.9%, while 43% of total supply is underwater, a condition historically associated with terminal phases of market corrections.
BTC is testing the $54,100 Realized Price, which has served as macro support in prior bull cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2023.
CryptoQuant’s analysts describe the current alignment of declining profit levels, rising losses, and slowing retail accumulation as a “maximum pain” scenario, indicating a high-conviction value zone rather than a temporary momentum trap.
“The current setup confirms we are in a high-conviction value zone, not a momentum trap,” the report states. “When 40%+ of the supply is in loss, the bottom is closer than it feels.”
Why This Matters
The distribution by whales and widespread unrealized losses highlight ongoing structural pressure in Bitcoin’s spot market. While a short-term price bounce is possible if macro risks ease, broader on-chain trends point to caution, suggesting that the market may be consolidating ahead of a potential turning point.
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People Also Ask:
Whales are holders of large amounts of BTC, typically 1,000–10,000 coins. When they sell, it can signal reduced confidence and create downward pressure on the spot market.
It refers to a condition where a large portion of BTC is in loss and selling pressure is high. Historically, it coincides with market bottoms and potential trend reversals.
Yes. Short-term rebounds are possible, especially if macro risks ease. However, ongoing large-holder distribution and weak retail accumulation suggest caution is warranted.
