Bitcoin’s current market landscape is marked by noticeable stress among long-term holders, as highlighted by recent on-chain metrics. With Bitcoin recently trading at $69,500, long-term holders are experiencing a relative unrealized loss of 15.5%.
This figure indicates that for every dollar in their portfolios, holders are carrying roughly 15 cents in unrealized losses. Historically, this metric has reached as high as 50 cents during extreme market cycles, underscoring the current pressure.
On-Chain Models Show Disparity
While the spot price of Bitcoin hovers around $68,800, key on-chain price models reveal a significant disparity. The Active Investors Mean is pegged at $85,100, while the True Market Mean stands at $78,000, and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis is $76,900.
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These figures suggest that the current market price is significantly below the perceived value by various investor segments, indicating potential undervaluation or lack of confidence.
ETF Flows and Market Demand
Adding to the stress, US Spot ETF flows have shifted back to net outflows, with the 7-day average nearing the weakest levels of the current cycle.
This trend coincides with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price retracing from $82,000 to $69,000, highlighting a decline in demand. The persistent outflows suggest a cautious stance among institutional investors, potentially exacerbating market pressures.
Bitcoin is trading near $66,880 today, reflecting ongoing market challenges and investor sentiment.
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