On September 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual preliminary revision of payroll employment data for April 2024 through March 2025.
Estimates suggest that between 450,000 and 950,000 jobs may be revised out of the previously reported figures, the largest adjustment in 15 years, according to Kobeissi, citing Goldman Sachs analysts.
BLS Benchmark Revision, or simply benchmark revision, aligns monthly payroll surveys with the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which covers 95% of U.S. jobs through unemployment insurance records.
Sponsored
Unlike the monthly payroll surveys, which rely on responses from only a portion of businesses, the benchmark revisions use comprehensive data covering nearly all U.S. jobs, giving a more accurate picture of employment trends.
Revisions have repeatedly reshaped the U.S. jobs picture. In June 2025, payrolls first showed a gain of 147,000 jobs, only to be revised down to a 13,000 loss. Since February 2022, benchmark adjustments have wiped out more than 1.1 million jobs from the official record.
Analysts warn the job count could be revised down by about 800,000, which would mean monthly job growth was closer to 88,000–110,000 rather than the reported 150,000. This slowdown in the labor market could push the Federal Reserve to reconsider its policy stance.
With central banks worldwide already cutting rates, the Fed may face pressure to follow, potentially opting for a 0.5% cut instead of the expected 0.25%.
What Does It Mean for Crypto?
A sharp downward revision in payrolls, combined with the prospect of a larger Fed rate cut, could be supportive for risk assets, including crypto.
Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar and expand liquidity, making cryptocurrencies more attractive. In the short term, that could drive fresh inflows into digital assets.
At the same time, the scale of the revision points to a weaker labor market and growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Markets may remain volatile as investors balance looser policy against signs of a slowing economy.
Why This Matters
Crypto traders should watch this closely: weaker payrolls and a potential Fed rate cut could give Bitcoin and altcoins a boost — but also make price swings more unpredictable.
Dig into Ciphera’s trending crypto scoops:
dApps, Wallets on High Alert After Massive Supply-Chain Attack
Coinbase Dumps 83% XRP; Reserves Down From 60 To 10 Wallets
People Also Ask:
The jobs report refers to the monthly U.S. employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), showing payroll changes, unemployment, and wages.
The jobs report signals the strength of the U.S. economy. Strong numbers can push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, while weaker data often supports rate cuts.
Crypto markets react indirectly to the jobs report. Weak jobs data can pressure the Fed to lower rates, which often boosts risk assets like crypto.
