Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bull market is on track but running behind schedule, as a rare technical signal not seen in five years has resurfaced.
In a post shared on X, analyst @TheRealPlanC pointed to a key deviation in the current cycle, arguing that Bitcoin is running 12 to 18 months behind where it has historically been at similar stages of previous bull markets.
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While the market’s price structure and behavior mirror past cycles, the timeline has shifted noticeably, suggesting an extended bull run may be underway.
“It’s very clear that everything is on track this bull run and going similarly to all other cycles,” Plan C wrote. “Except for one major difference: we are about 12–18 months behind where we have historically been at this point.”
First outlined by analyst @TechDev_52, the signal is derived from a proprietary momentum indicator tied to broader business cycles, including proxies linked to the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
The model shows a reversal in the indicator’s green trend line in October 2025, that has historically preceded parabolic Bitcoin rallies. Similar reversals in 2016 and 2020 were followed by major bull-market expansions, with Bitcoin rising roughly 10–20x to new all-time highs.
Meanwhile, @TheRealPlanC emphasizes that the current market should not be viewed through the lens of a standard four-year halving cycle.
According to him, macroeconomic headwinds have significantly extended the early buildup phase of this bull market. As a result, the full cycle may stretch to 5 to 5.5 years, potentially pushing peak-cycle conditions into 2026–2027 rather than earlier expectations.
This aligns with easing liquidity, including potential rate cuts, which could extend upside for bulls but also increase vulnerability to unexpected shocks.
Why This Matters
With Bitcoin trading around $87,300 today, many see this as a hopeful sign for higher prices over the next year or more.
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People Also Ask:
A Bitcoin bull run refers to a sustained period of rising prices, often driven by increased demand, investor optimism, or favorable market conditions. Bull runs can lead to rapid price gains over weeks or months.
Historically, Bitcoin bull runs last around 3–4 years, often linked to its halving cycle, though timing can vary due to macroeconomic factors and market dynamics.
Triggers include halving events, institutional adoption, positive regulatory news, easing liquidity, and macroeconomic conditions that drive capital into cryptocurrencies. Technical indicators can also signal the start of a bull run.
According to analysts, the current cycle is running behind schedule by 12–18 months but is structurally aligned with historical patterns, suggesting the potential for an extended bull run through 2026–2027.
Easing liquidity, rate cuts, and broader economic cycles can extend a Bitcoin bull run, while tightening or shocks may slow price growth.
